Remote Sensing Applications and Decision Support

Markov chains–cellular automata modeling and multicriteria analysis of land cover change in the Lower Nhecolândia subregion of the Brazilian Pantanal wetland

[+] Author Affiliations
Vitor Matheus Bacani

Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul, Rua Oscar Trindade de Barros, 740, Bairro Serraria, CEP 79200-000 Aquidauana, MS, Brazil

Arnaldo Yoso Sakamoto

Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul, Avenue Ranulpho Marques Leal, 3484, Caixa Postal 210, CEP 79620-080 Três Lagoas, MS, Brazil

Hervé Quénol, Clémence Vannier, Samuel Corgne

LETG Rennes COSTEL UMR CNRS 6554/OSUR, Université Rennes 2, Place du recteur Henri Le Moal, 35043 Rennes Cedex, France

J. Appl. Remote Sens. 10(1), 016004 (Jan 19, 2016). doi:10.1117/1.JRS.10.016004
History: Received May 5, 2015; Accepted December 9, 2015
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Abstract.  The dynamics of land use/land cover change in the Lower Nhecolândia wetland are marked by deforestation for pasture expansion, resulting in a real threat to the ecological stability. The aim of our work was to analyze the spatial distribution of land cover changes in the Lower Nhecolândia from 1985 to 2013 and to predict changes in trends for 2040. The mapping of land cover changes was developed using Landsat satellite images of 1985, 1999, 2007, and 2013, based on geographic object-based image analysis approach. This study uses integrated Markov chains and cellular automata modeling and multicriteria evaluation techniques to produce transition probability maps and describe the trajectory analysis methodology to construct a continuity of spatial and temporal changes for the wetland. The results of the multitemporal change detection classification show that, from 1985 to 2013, the forest woodland decreased by 6.89% and the grassland class increased by 18.29%. On the other hand, all water bodies showed a reducing trend, while the bare soil class increased compared to 1985, but did not present a regular trend of increase or decrease. From the present day, the trend for the future is a reduction of almost 6.4% by 2040. We found that deforestation actions will be concentrated in the areas with the highest concentration of saline lakes, constituting a serious threat to the natural functioning of this environmental system.

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© 2016 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers

Topics

Land cover ; Modeling

Citation

Vitor Matheus Bacani ; Arnaldo Yoso Sakamoto ; Hervé Quénol ; Clémence Vannier and Samuel Corgne
"Markov chains–cellular automata modeling and multicriteria analysis of land cover change in the Lower Nhecolândia subregion of the Brazilian Pantanal wetland", J. Appl. Remote Sens. 10(1), 016004 (Jan 19, 2016). ; http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/1.JRS.10.016004


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