Quantitative evaluation of PSU-NCAR MM5 forecasts over Indian region during monsoon 1998.

Rakesh V; R. Singh; P. K. Pal; P. C. Joshi

doi:10.1117/12.693963

5 December 2006 Quantitative evaluation of PSU-NCAR MM5 forecasts over Indian region during monsoon 1998.

Rakesh V, R. Singh, P. K. Pal, P. C. Joshi

Proceedings Volume 6404, Remote Sensing and Modeling of the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Interactions; 64040N (2006) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.693963
Event: SPIE Asia-Pacific Remote Sensing, 2006, Goa, India

Abstract

The skill of short-range forecasts produced using the PSU-NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) during the July 1998 episode of Indian summer monsoon is evaluated statistically. The spatial and temporal variations in the forecast error is analysed by computing bias and root mean square error (rmse) in the model predicted wind, temperature, and relative humidity. The model forecasted rainfall is evaluated against observation by computing statistical skill scores. It is observed that model simulated upper-tropospheric anticyclone from both 24- and 48-h forecast is slightly east of its observed position. The strength of tropical easterly jet (TEJ) is underestimated in model forecast. It is seen that the rmse in forecasted wind at 850 hPa is higher in case of Peninsular India (PI) as compared to other regions studied. Over Indian subcontinent the model forecast under predicts moisture at 850 hPa, which is consistent with the previous studies. The rainfall distribution from both 24- and 48-h predictions shows an underestimation of monthly rainfall over Indian land mass. The rain shadow region observed in the eastern coast of southern Peninsular India is reproduced in model forecast. It is evident from the threat scores obtained that MM5 shows moderate skill in predicting rainfall and model skill does not vary significantly with rainfall threshold.

Citation Download Citation

Rakesh V, R. Singh, P. K. Pal, and P. C. Joshi "Quantitative evaluation of PSU-NCAR MM5 forecasts over Indian region during monsoon 1998.", Proc. SPIE 6404, Remote Sensing and Modeling of the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Interactions, 64040N (5 December 2006); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.693963

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