A logistic-CA model for the simulation and prediction of cultivated land change by using GIS and RS

Xinli Ke; Fulin Bian

doi:10.1117/12.815752

29 December 2008 A logistic-CA model for the simulation and prediction of cultivated land change by using GIS and RS

Xinli Ke, Fulin Bian

Proceedings Volume 7285, International Conference on Earth Observation Data Processing and Analysis (ICEODPA); 72853F (2008) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.815752
Event: International Conference on Earth Observation Data Processing and Analysis, 2008, Wuhan, China

Abstract

Prediction of farmland change is a basic work of farmland protection, and also provides basic data for land use planning. According to non-linear characteristic of farmland change, a new method which employs Cellular Automata and Logistic Regression Model to simulate and predict farmland change is discussed in this paper, and structure of Logistic-CA Model and parameters calculation are analyzed. And then, taking Xiantao City as a case, Logistic-CA Model mentioned in this paper was applied to simulate and predict farmland change in this area. Results show: (1)Logistic-CA Model can get rid of disadvantages of traditional mathematic models and get higher accuracy in farmland change prediction; (2)Logistic-CA Model can not only predict quantitative change of farmland, but also simulate pattern evolvement of farmland; (3)Logistic-CA Model can simulate and predict farmland change in various scenarios, and give evidences for establishing policies to protect farmland.

Citation Download Citation

Xinli Ke and Fulin Bian "A logistic-CA model for the simulation and prediction of cultivated land change by using GIS and RS", Proc. SPIE 7285, International Conference on Earth Observation Data Processing and Analysis (ICEODPA), 72853F (29 December 2008); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.815752

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KEYWORDS

Mathematical modeling

Monte Carlo methods

Remote sensing

Data conversion

Geographic information systems

Roads

Analytical research

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