V. L. Derbov,1 S. I. Vinitsky,2,3 A. A. Gusev,2 F. M. Pen'kov,4 P. M. Krassovitskiy,5 G. Chuluunbaatar2
1Saratov State Univ. (Russian Federation) 2Joint Institute for Nuclear Research (Russian Federation) 3RUDN Univ. (Russian Federation) 4Al-Farabi Kazakh National Univ. (Kazakhstan) 5Institute of Nuclear Physics (Kazakhstan)
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A mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic based on a two-parameter nonlinear first-order ordinary differential equation with retarded time argument is proposed. The model uses two parameters: the time of possible dissemination of infection by an individual virus carrier and the probability of contamination of a healthy population member in a contact with an infected one per unit time. The parameters can be given functions of time, which is particularly important in describing multi-peak pandemic. The model is applicable to any community (country, city, etc.) and provides an optimal balance between the adequate description of a pandemic inherent in the known SIR model and the relative simplicity for practical estimates. Examples of the model application are in qualitative agreement with the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic.
V. L. Derbov,S. I. Vinitsky,A. A. Gusev,F. M. Pen'kov,P. M. Krassovitskiy, andG. Chuluunbaatar
"Mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic based on a retarded differential equation", Proc. SPIE 11847, Saratov Fall Meeting 2020: Computations and Data Analysis: from Molecular Processes to Brain Functions, 1184709 (4 May 2021); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2589136
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V. L. Derbov, S. I. Vinitsky, A. A. Gusev, F. M. Pen'kov, P. M. Krassovitskiy, G. Chuluunbaatar, "Mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic based on a retarded differential equation," Proc. SPIE 11847, Saratov Fall Meeting 2020: Computations and Data Analysis: from Molecular Processes to Brain Functions, 1184709 (4 May 2021); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2589136