An early warning of crop losses in response to weather fluctuations helps farmers, governments, traders, and policy makers better monitor global food supply and demand and identifies nations in need of aid. This paper discusses the utility of vegetation health (VH) indices, derived from the advance very high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and visible infrared imaging radiometer suite (VIIRS), as a proxy for modeling Australian wheat from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operational afternoon polar-orbiting satellites. These models are used to assess wheat production and to provide an early warning of drought-related losses. The NOAA AVHRR- and VIIRS-based VH indices were used to model wheat yield in Australia. A strong correlation (≥0.7) between wheat yield and VH indices was found during the critical reproductive stage of development (enhanced crops sensitivity to weather), which starts 2 to 3 weeks before and ends 2 to 3 weeks after wheat heading. The results of modeling and independent testing proved that the VH indices (especially those estimating thermal and health conditions) are a good proxy providing 1 to 2 months before harvest yield prediction (with 3% to 6% error). With the new generation of NOAA-20 operational polar-orbiting satellites, launched in November 2017, the VH method will be improved considerably both in an advanced crop/pasture prediction, spatial resolution, and accuracy.
Potato is one of the staple foods and cash crops in Bangladesh. It is widely cultivated in all of the districts and ranks second after rice in production. Bangladesh is the fourth largest potato producer in Asia and is among the world’s top 15 potato producing countries. The weather condition for potato cultivation is favorable during the sowing, growing and harvesting period. It is a winter crop and is cultivated during the period of November to March. Bangladesh is mainly an agricultural based country with respect to agriculture’s contribution to GDP, employment and consumption. Potato is a prominent crop in consideration of production, its internal demand and economic value. Bangladesh has a big economic activities related to potato cultivation and marketing, especially the economic relations among farmers, traders, stockers and cold storage owners. Potato yield prediction before harvest is an important issue for the Government and the stakeholders in managing and controlling the potato market. Advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) based satellite data product vegetation health indices VCI (vegetation condition index) and TCI (temperature condition index) are used as predictors for early prediction. Artificial neural network (ANN) is used to develop a prediction model. The simulated result from this model is encouraging and the error of prediction is less than 10%.
Rice production in Bangladesh is a crucial part of the national economy and providing about 70 percent of an average citizen’s total calorie intake. The demand for rice is constantly rising as the new populations are added in every year in Bangladesh. Due to the increase in population, the cultivation land decreases. In addition, Bangladesh is faced with production constraints such as drought, flooding, salinity, lack of irrigation facilities and lack of modern technology. To maintain self sufficiency in rice, Bangladesh will have to continue to expand rice production by increasing yield at a rate that is at least equal to the population growth until the demand of rice has stabilized. Accurate rice yield prediction is one of the most important challenges in managing supply and demand of rice as well as decision making processes. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used to construct a model to predict Aus rice yield in Bangladesh. Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-based remote sensing satellite data vegetation health (VH) indices (Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and Temperature Condition Index (TCI) are used as input variables and official statistics of Aus rice yield is used as target variable for ANN prediction model. The result obtained with ANN method is encouraging and the error of prediction is less than 10%. Therefore, prediction can play an important role in planning and storing of sufficient rice to face in any future uncertainty.
Rice is a dominant food crop of Bangladesh accounting about 75 percent of agricultural land use for rice cultivation and currently Bangladesh is the world’s fourth largest rice producing country. Rice provides about two-third of total calorie supply and about one-half of the agricultural GDP and one-sixth of the national income in Bangladesh. Aus is one of the main rice varieties in Bangladesh. Crop production, especially rice, the main food staple, is the most susceptible to climate change and variability. Any change in climate will, thus, increase uncertainty regarding rice production as climate is major cause year-to-year variability in rice productivity. This paper shows the application of remote sensing data for estimating Aus rice yield in Bangladesh using official statistics of rice yield with real time acquired satellite data from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensor and Principal Component Regression (PCR) method was used to construct a model. The simulated result was compared with official agricultural statistics showing that the error of estimation of Aus rice yield was less than 10%. Remote sensing, therefore, is a valuable tool for estimating crop yields well in advance of harvest, and at a low cost.
A better understanding of the relationship between satellites observed vegetation health, and malaria epidemics could help mitigate the worldwide increase in incidence of mosquito-transmitted diseases. This research investigates last 17- years association between vegetation health (condition) index and malaria transmission in Bikaner, Rajasthan in India an arid and hot summer area. The vegetation health (condition) index, derived from a combination of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and 10-μm to 11-μm thermal radiances, was designed for monitoring moisture and thermal impacts on vegetation health. We demonstrate that thermal condition is more sensitive to malaria transmission with different seasonal malaria activities. The weekly VH indices were correlated with the epidemiological data. A good correlation was found between malaria cases and Temperature Condition Index (TCI) one at least two months earlier than the malaria transmission season. Following the results of correlation analysis, Principal Component Regression (PCR) method was used to construct a model of less than 10% error to predict malaria as a function of the TCI.
Information on current and anticipated moisture and thermal condition from satellite data represents a source of affordable yet careful information for malaria forecasters to implement and control of epidemic. During the last decades Orissa state in India suffered from highest level of malaria incidence. This situation requires frequent monitoring of environmental conditions and dynamics of malaria occurrence. During 1985 to 2004 the NOAA AVHRR global vegetation index (GVI) dataset and its vegetation health (VH) have been studied and used as proxy for malaria fluctuation. This paper discusses applications of VH for early detecting and monitoring malaria incidence in Orissa. A significant relationship between satellite data and annual malaria incidences is found at least three months before the major malaria transmission period.
The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors onboard The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) polar-orbiting satellites have been measuring electromagnetic radiation emitted by the Earth in
the visible (VIS), Near-Infrared (NIR) and Infrared (IR) portions of the electromagnetic spectrum for nearly 30 years.
The Global Vegetation Index Vegetation Health product (GVI-x VH) developed from the AVHRR dataset includes the
Brightness Temperature (BT) variable calculated from the IR channels, which in turn is used to estimate other
environmental variables such as Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Land Surface Temperature (LST), Temperature
Condition Index (TCI), and Vegetation Health Index (VTI) among others. However, the satellite measured IR radiances
need to be corrected with sufficient accuracy to minimize the uncertainty introduced by a host of sources such as the
atmosphere, stratospheric aerosols, and satellite orbital drift before being input into any algorithm to generate remotely
sensed products. In this research we have applied a statistical technique based on Empirical Distribution Functions
(EDF) to normalize the NOAA GVI-x BT records for the combined effect of the sources of uncertainty mentioned
above, avoiding the need for physics based corrections. The normalized results are tested to verify that the normalization
improves the data.
This study examined the relationship between environmental factors and malaria epidemic. The
objective is to use NOAA environmental satellite data to produce weather seasonal forecasts as a
proxy for predicting malaria epidemics in Tripura, India which has the one of the highest
endemic of malaria cases in the country. An algorithm uses the Vegetation Health (VH) Indices
(Vegetation Condition Index( VCI) and Temperature Condition Index (TCI)) computed from
Advance Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data flown on NOAA afternoon poler
orbiting satellite.. A good correlation was found between malaria cases and TCI two months
earlier than the malaria transmission period. Principal components regression (PCR) method was
used to develop a model to predict malaria as a function of the TCI. The simulated results were
compared with observed malaria statistics showing that the error of the estimates of malaria is
small. Remote sensing therefore is a valuable tool for estimating malaria well in advance thus
preventive measures can be taken.
A better understanding of the relationship between malaria epidemics, satellite data and the
climatic anomalies could help mitigate the world-wide increase in incidence of the mosquitotransmitted
diseases. This paper analyzes correlation between malaria cases and vegetation health
(VH) Indices (Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and Temperature Condition Index (TCI))
computed for each week over a period of 14 years (1992-2005). Following the results of correlation
analysis the principal components regression (PCR) method was performed on weather components
(TCI, VCI) of satellite data and climate variability during each of the two annual malaria seasons to
construct a model to predict malaria as a function of the VH. A statistically significant relation was
found between malaria cases and TCI during the month of June-July and September-October.
Furthermore the simulated results found from PCR model were compared with observed malaria
statistics showing that the error of the estimates of malaria is 5%.
This paper investigates Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) stability in the NOAA/NESDIS Global
Vegetation Index (GVI) data during 1982-2003. Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) weekly data for
the five NOAA afternoon satellites for the China dataset is studied, for it includes a wide variety of different ecosystems
represented globally. It was found that data for the years 1988, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995 and 2000 are not stable enough
compared to other years because of satellite orbit drift, and AVHRR sensor degradation. It is assumed that data from
NOAA-7 (1982, 1983), NOAA-9 (1985, 1986), NOAA-11 (1989, 1990),
NOAA-14 (1996, 1997), and NOAA-16 (2001,
2002) to be standard because these satellite's equator crossing time fall within 1330 and 1500, and hence maximizing the
value of coefficients. The crux of the proposed correction procedure consists of dividing standard year's data sets into
two subsets. The subset 1 (standard data correction sets) is used for correcting unstable years and then corrected data for
this years compared with the standard data in the subset 2 (standard data validation sets). In this paper, we apply
empirical distribution function (EDF) to correct this deficiency of data for the affected years. We normalize or correct
NDVI data by the method of EDF compared with the standard. Using these normalized values, we estimate new NDVI
time series which provides NDVI data for these years that match in subset 2 that is used for data validation.
This study aims to analyze impacts of the NESDIS new product of green vegetation fraction (GVF) data on simulated
surface air temperature and surface fluxes over the continental United States (CONUS) using the Nonhydrostatic
Mesoscale Model (NMM) core of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system, i.e. WRF-NMM, coupled with
the Noah land surface model (LSM). The new global 0.144 by 0.144 degree GVF dataset is an AVHHR-based, near real-time
weekly dataset starting from 1982. It has better quality and a higher temporal resolution than the old monthly GVF
dataset that is currently used in the NOAA operational numerical weather prediction models. The new weekly
climatology GVF data shows a higher percentage of greenness fraction over most US areas than the old dataset, with the
largest differences by 20-40% over the southeast U.S., the northern Middle West, and the west coast of California in
summer. We have performed some case studies over CONUS during July 2006. In general, using the new GVF data
cools predicted surface temperature over most regions compared to the old data, with the largest cooling over regions
with the largest GVF increase. The latent heat increases significantly over most areas while the sensible heat decreases
slightly. These results are physically consistent as more of the net radiation is dissipated in form of latent heat via
enhanced evapotranspiration in response to increasing vegetation cover. Compared with observations, the new GVF
application reduces the WRF-NMM 2-m surface air temperature warm biases, 2-m relative humidity negative biases, and
their RMSEs.
Empirical distribution functions were applied for removing long-term errors from BT data derived from AVHRR sensor
on NOAA environmental satellites. This paper investigates BT stability in the NOAA/NESDIS Global Vegetation Index
(GVI) data set during 1982-2003. This period includes five NOAA satellites. Degradation of BT over time for each
satellite was estimated for geographical location in China. The method of matching empirical distribution function
(EDF) improves the time relative stability of BT data for all satellites, especially NOAA-9, -11 and -14.
With nearly 30 years of the accumulated AVHRR data which were collected from NOAA
operational polar-orbiting environmental satellites, the area of their applications expanded
in the direction of agricultural production modeling, understanding of climate and global
change, resource management, and early and more efficient monitoring of the
environmental impacts (especially droughts) on economy and society. This becomes
possible due to development of Vegetation Health indices (VHI). This paper discusses
utility of AVHRR-based VHI for modeling crop and pasture yield with specific emphasis
on early drought warning and estimation of losses in agricultural production.
The drought affects agricultural crops by diminishing amount of water
necessary for vegetation. Deficit of soil moisture in specific vegetation growth stage
causes the reduction in crop yield.
The research, which has been carried out in Poland, gives consistent
information on soil and vegetation growth over agricultural regions using various
satellite-derived soil - vegetation indices. A wide range of ground-based
measurements such as soil moisture, leaf area, and biomass were collected on nearly
same dates of satellite overpass.
The different soil moisture indices have been calculated on the basis of
evapotranspiration derived from the surface temperature obtained from
NOAA/AVHRR and meteorological data. The temperature condition index (TCI)
characterising the status of crop development has been obtained from Global Area
Coverage (GAC) data derived from NOAA images. Furthermore, latent heat fluxes
and NDVI values have been calculated and implemented as the input to the models.
This paper describes the analysis and results of a study to improve the detection and
monitoring of drought conditions.
Drought is the major disaster, which occurs in some part of India every year due to monsoon variability. India has established satellite based National Agricultural Drought Assessment and Monitoring System (NADAMS), at National Remote Sensing Agency, Department of Space since 1987. NADAMS provides near real time monitoring and early warning of drought conditions at National level using NOAA AVHRR and at regional level using IRS WiFS and AWiFS data. ISRO-NASA-NOAA science cooperation project has been initiated during 2005 for development of satellite based decision support drought monitor system in India. Initially, the evaluation of GVI based indices for drought early warning in India was taken up. The study was carried out over five small regions each covering part of a district and over five large regions each covering few districts in each state of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Rajasthan states and the result of the study is presented in this paper.
The weekly GVI based indices such as Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Vegetation Health Index (VHI) for the period from 1991-2004 over 5 small regions covering part of districts namely Banaskantha district of Gujarat state to represent Bajra crop, Surendra nagar district of Gujarat state to represent Cotton crop, Nasik district of Maharashtra to represent Bajra crop, Bhandara district to represent Rice crop and Akola district of Maharastra to represent Jowar crop was selected. The weekly GVI based indices over 5 large regions with larger database from 1981 to 2004 covering few districts of Rajasthan state to represent winter wheat and few districts of Maharashtra state to represent Jowar, Rice and Cotton crops were selected.
The comparison of seasonal average VCI, TCI and VHI with the corresponding crops yield over 5 small regions indicate better regression coefficient for VHI than VCI or TCI. The comparison over 5 large regions covering larger data base from 1982-2004 indicate better regression coefficient for VCI than VHI or TCI. Results of the study suggests over smaller region, the VCI and TCI combined VHI indices relates better with crop yields, whereas over larger region, the VCI itself relates better with crop yields than with TCI or the VCI and TCI combined VHI.
India and the United States of America (U.S.A.) held a joint conference from June 21-25, 2004 in
Bangalore, India to strengthen and expand cooperation in the area of space science, applications, and
commerce. Following the recommendations in the joint vision statement released at the end of the
conference, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Indian Space and
Reconnaissance Organization (ISRO) initiated several joint science projects in the area of satellite product
development and applications. This is an extraordinary step since it concentrates on improvements in the
data and scientific exchange between India and the United States, consistent with a Memorandum of
Understanding (MOU) signed by the two nations in 1997. With the relationship between both countries
strengthening with President Bush's visit in early 2006 and new program announcements between the two
countries, there is a renewed commitment at ISRO and other Indian agencies and at NOAA in the U.S. to
fulfill the agreements reached on the joint science projects. The collaboration is underway with several
science projects that started in 2005 providing initial results.
NOAA and ISRO agreed that the projects must promote scientific understanding of the satellite
data and lead to a satellite-based decision support systems for disaster and public health warnings. The
projects target the following areas:
--supporting a drought monitoring system for India
--improving precipitation estimates over India from Kalpana-1
--increasing aerosol optical depth measurements and products over India
--developing early indicators of malaria and other vector borne diseases via satellite monitoring of
environmental conditions and linking them to predictive models
--monitoring sea surface temperature (SST) from INSAT-3D to support improved forecasting of
regional storms, monsoon onset and cyclones.
The research collaborations and results from these projects will be presented and discussed in the
context of India-US cooperation and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) concept.
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