We present the results of spatial distribution of moisture content in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region during the warm and cold seasons. We analyze moisture content in the layers of the troposphere with the largest % of moisture flow in the cold and warm seasons. We calculate the moisture content in the Mediterranean-Black in the 700 hPa layer Sea for the cold season and in the 500 hPa layer for t1he warm season. We show the formation of a zone of anomalous moisture content in the Carpathian region, associated with moisture flow in the troposphere. We determine 20-year trends in moisture content in the 500 hPa layer (warm season). By analyzing the periodicity of the positive and negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation index we find the conditions that lead to the formation of zones of anomalous moisture content in the Carpathian region. We demonstrate the relationships between AO and moisture content at the level of 2 and 5-year harmonics in the 500 hPa layer (warm season), and 3.5 and 5-year harmonics in the 700 hPa layer (cold season).
An archive of cloud amount in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region in 1984-2009 has been formed using satellite data from the Meteosat satellites. The procedures for decoding satellite images and automatical identifying of the cloud amount from single-channel satellite shots made by the Meteosat satellite in the infrared range were used. The procedure based on the analysis of the time series of radiation temperature at fixed “points” on the earth has shown an advantage over the results obtained using the simple threshold filter. To assess the uniformity and quality of the data of the generated archive, annual and monthly mean cloud amounts were compared with the satellite data archives of the ISCCP and ground-based observations of SYNOP. For a qualitative comparison of all the archives, annual mean values of the cloud amount, standard deviations and correlation coefficients between them were calculated. Correlation coefficients for monthly mean cloud numbers between the archives were 0.71–0.95 at the level of 99% confidence, and standard deviations in winter over the sea were 0.7 and over the land up to 0.9. The cloud amount error was determined by the gradations (score) and was performed for two satellite archives and the archive of ground-based observations. The errors that arise when assessing the quality of the cloud data from satellite and ground-based observations depend on the features of their detection, observation, and the processing techniques. The obtained data array showed that the zone of the maximum cloud amount over the Black Sea in winter indicates the active stage of the Black Sea depression, with its typical stationary atmospheric front. The results of the Fourier analysis showed the presence of a quasi-two-year harmonic, with the largest amplitude of oscillations occurring in winter and spring, and the smallest in summer
The analysis of the conditions for the occurrence of dangerous weather events in winter when the Balkan cyclone entered the Black Sea on 29.12.2014 is presented. In the zone of cyclonic activity, a powerful jet stream up to 29.5 km thick with a maximum speed of 89 m/s was observed. In the region where the cyclone was passing, the integral moisture content values reached 18.66 kg/m2 , in the zone of action of a powerful jet stream, an increase in moisture transfer to 542.5 kg/m×s was detected, which contributed to the intensification of the processes of precipitation formation.
The results of the mutual spectral analysis of mean NAO index values and the values of mean moisture content and moisture during the warm period of the year from 1973 to 2016 confirm the existence of statistically significant relationships interlatitudinal large-scale atmospheric circulation of the atmosphere in the Atlantic-European region with the characteristics of the hydrologic cycle of the Black Sea region with a probability of more than 65%, which makes it possible to use them to forecast the dynamics of the moisture content of the variability in the troposphere region.
Qualitative analysis of the formation of cyclones in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region during period of activity of positive and negative phases of various indices of climatic activity, such asNAO, EA, Scand and EA/WR. It was shown that in the Mediterranean Sea cyclones are formed mainly in the negative phases of indices such as NAO, Scand and EA/WR. A comparative analysis of composite values of the number of cloud vortexes, taking into account phases of NAO, EA, Scand and EA/WR, showed that in the positive phase for all indices, the repeatability of cyclone in the Black Sea ranges from 43% to 50%, in the negative phase – from 51 to 57%.
The paper gives an analysis of a rare case of a powerful cyclone with an eye of the storm over the Black Sea. The development of the synoptic situationwas described, the thermodynamic parameters of the tropospherewere calculated, their dynamics wasanalyzed. The spatial distribution of moisture flows at a height of 3.5 km above the sea level is shown. The quantitative and spatial parameters of precipitation fields are estimated.
The analysis of the surface temperaturesvariability (monthly mean) over the period 1969-2014 by frequency of exceeding the climatic norm (1961-1990) is presented. An increaseof such situations in 3.5 times over entire Crimean peninsula territoryis revealed. “Strong exceeding” (from 2.0σ to 2.5σ) is characterized by an increase in the number of cases from 6% to 15% and “very strong exceeding” (>; 2.5σ) – from 0% to 18%. The value of coefficients in the “very strong exceeding” reaches 5.9σ. The pronounced effect of surface air temperature growing indicates an increase in threats which creates thermal stress on human health. The main categories are vulnerable elderly people, as well as the people do not acclimate to an unfamiliar thermal environment (in this category in most of the representatives of the tourist flow). While maintaining the observed trends, extreme heat periods will be a serious threat to the health of persons that has “epidemical” potential in the European region.
This paper presents analysis of space-time characteristics of the temperature regime in the troposphere of the Black Sea region. Stable variability of zero isothermlevel, natural and intensive crystallization is found: there is an increase in altitudes above the sea level; maximum elevation is characteristic for the level of natural crystallization. The results indicate a significant increase in temperature in the troposphere of the region, which is a consequence of modern climate changes. During the warm season of the year, we can expect fewer cases of precipitation in the form of small hailstones or sleet, more cases of torrential rainfalls, increase in cumulonimbus cloudiness in the region. The warmed troposphere of the Black Sea region acquires the properties of the tropical troposphere;invasion of polar air masses will lead to formation of powerful cumulonimbuscloud cover,formation of extra-large hail; prolonged and intense thunderstorms; occurrence of whirlwindsand high winds.
This paper presents an analysis of the dynamic and energetic characteristics of the troposphere at occurrence of hazardous weather phenomena associated with cyclonic activity in the Black Sea Region. Formation of a powerful convection takes place at the presence of jet streams in the upper troposphere as well as wind velocity and direction shears in the lower and mid-troposphere. Peak values of kinetic energy are characteristic for the upper troposphere. Characteristic for catastrophic phenomena is a simultaneous combination of a number of conditions: a high moisture content of air masses at the condensation level and above it, convergence of air streams in the lower troposphere, the area leading to increase in ascending motions. In the lower troposphere, a clockwise wind rotation is observed which provides warm advection; in the upper troposphere, a counterclockwise wind rotation occurs. In cases of a tornado, the upper wind shear was observed near the lower level of increase in wind, in the 700-600 hPa layer.
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