Risk analysis method for balancing positive and negative backup gaps in distributed new energy grids based on historical load peak and valley values and big data

Yuan Zhang; Shu Xia

doi:10.1117/12.3024641

13 May 2024 Risk analysis method for balancing positive and negative backup gaps in distributed new energy grids based on historical load peak and valley values and big data

Yuan Zhang, Shu Xia

Author Affiliations +

Proceedings Volume 13159, Eighth International Conference on Energy System, Electricity, and Power (ESEP 2023); 1315929 (2024) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.3024641
Event: Eighth International Conference on Energy System, Electricity and Power (ESEP 2023), 2023, Wuhan, China

Abstract

This study proposes a risk analysis method for balancing positive and negative reserve gaps in distributed new energy grids based on historical load peak valley values and big data. This method analyzes historical load data, explores potential laws and correlations in distributed new energy grid data, and combines ARIMA model and hidden Markov model to describe the operation of distributed new energy grids, obtaining the evaluation results of distributed new energy power supply capacity. Based on the evaluation results, calculate the positive and negative backup gaps and obtain the risk indicator values at each time point. Analyze and make decisions based on risk indicator values to achieve risk analysis. The experimental results indicate that this method can accurately evaluate the risk of positive and negative backup gaps in distributed new energy grids, and provide reasonable decision-making basis for grid managers. It is expected to play an important role in practical applications.

(2024) Published by SPIE. Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.

Citation Download Citation

Yuan Zhang and Shu Xia "Risk analysis method for balancing positive and negative backup gaps in distributed new energy grids based on historical load peak and valley values and big data", Proc. SPIE 13159, Eighth International Conference on Energy System, Electricity, and Power (ESEP 2023), 1315929 (13 May 2024); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.3024641

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